Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/315111 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. TI 2025-015/V
Publisher: 
Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam and Rotterdam
Abstract: 
While sports betting markets share similarities with traditional financial markets, they are more accessible for empirical research thanks to availability of high-quality data, straightforward betting procedures, and the finite duration of events. As a result, they are often analyzed for market efficiency and serve as a field laboratory for studying financial markets. This study examines 24 seasons of English Premier League matches, revealing consistent non-transitive patterns in match outcomes among various triads (groups of three clubs). These empirical findings are difficult to rationalize and represent a notable anomaly. Bookmakers ignore the non-transitive patterns when setting odds. Faced with a trade-off between efficiency using historical information and maintaining consistency, they prioritize consistency.
Subjects: 
Market efficiency
Sports betting
Non-transitivity
Football
English Premier League
JEL: 
C25
D01
Z2
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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