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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2025
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 11668
Verlag: 
CESifo GmbH, Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
We assess how changes in the scientific consensus around equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), as captured by the IPCC's Fifth (AR5) and Sixth (AR6) Assessment Reports, impact policymakers' willingness to take climate action. Taking the IPCC's reports at face value, the ECS estimates in AR6 would have lowered a policymaker's willingness to act on climate relative to AR5 due to a narrower "likely" range. However, Bayesian updating may reverse this conclusion. An accuracy-motivated policymaker who was not convinced to take greater climate action by the evidence in AR5 may be more likely to strengthen their policy views by the evidence in AR6.
Schlagwörter: 
equilibrium climate sensitivity
Bayesian updating
climate policy
JEL: 
Q54
H51
D83
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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