Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/314689 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 11650
Publisher: 
CESifo GmbH, Munich
Abstract: 
High electoral turnout is seen as a key determinant of a successful democracy. One reason for this is that turnout is believed to affect electoral outcomes. This has given rise to a flourishing literature studying the effect of increased turnout on various outcomes. It is well known that variation in turnout is not random, so a plethora of identification strategies are applied to assure causal estimates. In this paper I argue that this endeavor is futile. I first discuss theoretically how we should define increased turnout. Next, I show that with the various identification strategies, estimates are based on the behavioral response of a biased group of voters.
Subjects: 
electoral turnout
effect of turnout
composition of electorate
econometric identification
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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