Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/314331 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
GLO Discussion Paper No. 1585
Publisher: 
Global Labor Organization (GLO), Essen
Abstract: 
Fertility rates have declined dramatically across almost all highincome countries over the past decades. This has raised concerns about future economic prospects. Indeed, fully- and semi-endogenous growth models imply that a shrinking workforce would lead to declining income growth and perhaps even stagnation. We extend the previous analyses to explicitly incorporate an endogenous quantity/quality trade-off between fertility and human capital accumulation. This allows us to assess the extent to which a declining number of workers can be compensated by increasing education. Our analysis demonstrates that economic growth needs not necessarily to decline with a falling population. Under certain conditions, human capital investment can sustain technological progress and economic growth despite the demographic challenges we are facing.
Subjects: 
Demographic Change
Fertility Decline
Economic Growth
Research and Development
Endogenous Fertility
Endogenous Education
Human Capital Accumulation
JEL: 
J11
J13
O33
O41
I25
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.