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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2024
Quellenangabe: 
[Journal:] Journal of Applied Economics [ISSN:] 1667-6726 [Volume:] 27 [Issue:] 1 [Article No.:] 2428737 [Year:] 2024 [Pages:] 1-23
Verlag: 
Taylor & Francis, Abingdon
Zusammenfassung: 
We study the statistical relationship between the world business cycle and the global temperature cycle. To amplify the signal-to-noise ratio, we estimate a two-state latent dynamic process from the original data using the endogenous regime-switching methodology. Subsequently, we apply a time-varying structural VAR analysis to identify the time-heterogeneous relationship between the extracted latent factors. Our findings provide empirical evidence that the global mean temperature cycle has a negative impact on the world business cycle during super El Niño periods, which are characterized by relatively high temperature variance records given the past information.
Schlagwörter: 
Climate change
global temperature anomaly
structural VAR model
world business cycle
JEL: 
C13
C51
E32
Q54
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