Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/313802 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2024
Quellenangabe: 
[Journal:] Economic Inquiry [ISSN:] 1465-7295 [Volume:] 63 [Issue:] 1 [Publisher:] Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [Place:] Hoboken, NJ [Year:] 2024 [Pages:] 236-264
Verlag: 
Wiley Periodicals, Inc., Hoboken, NJ
Zusammenfassung: 
Markets are information aggregators. But how do they incorporate new data into their pricing? We examine the response of prediction markets to a novel information shock in a quasi‐natural experiment: How did the absence announcements of elite soccer players influence the betting odds of affected matches? Analyzing the first four statistical moments of 117,174 odds from 32 bookmakers, we identify initial inertia followed by a lagged reaction that we cannot reason with learning. Our findings raise questions about how bettors and bookmakers incorporate new information into their beliefs. It has broader implications regarding information processing in markets.
Schlagwörter: 
belief updating
betting markets
betting odds
forecasting errors
information shocks
prediction markets
pricing
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
Creative-Commons-Lizenz: 
cc-by Logo
Dokumentart: 
Article
Dokumentversion: 
Published Version

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.