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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2017
Quellenangabe: 
[Journal:] Review of Development Finance [ISSN:] 2959-0930 [Volume:] 7 [Issue:] 2 [Year:] 2017 [Pages:] 107-119
Verlag: 
Elsevier, Amsterdam
Zusammenfassung: 
This study explores economic interdependence in Mercosur by examining common trends and common cycles among key macro-variables representing both the real and financial sectors of the economy. The serial correlation common features test reveals that the key macroeconomic variables (real output, investment, and intra-regional trade) share common trends in the long run suggesting that macroeconomic interdependence in the Mercosur economies is strong. The exchange rates demonstrate co-movement in the long run as they share a single common trend. These finding suggests that these economies cannot swing away from long-run equilibrium for an extended duration; they will be brought together by their common trends. Similarly, each variable under consideration shares common cycles lending support to the notion of short-run synchronous movement. The trend-cycle decomposition results reveal that the cyclical movements of real output and trade are synchronized with a high degree of positive correlations. Our overall findings thus provide justification and optimism for deeper economic integration among Mercosur countries.
Schlagwörter: 
Economic integration
Co-movement
Business cycles
Mercosur
Exchange rates
JEL: 
F15
F42
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