Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/312900 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Working Paper No. HEIDWP04-2025
Publisher: 
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva
Abstract: 
I propose partial-equilibrium models that describe the dynamics of global wheat and corn markets. These models extend the classic competitive storage framework by incorporating nonstationary variables. They are calibrated using data from Ukraine and key importing and exporting countries. The models enable the endogenous estimation of price trends, based on the observed movements in the underlying variables. This framework provides insights into how involuntary reductions in Ukraine's global market presence, triggered by Russia's invasion, could have affected trend prices.
Subjects: 
commodity storage
trends
nonstationary models
numerical methods
JEL: 
C32
C63
Q11
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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