Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/312365 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Citation: 
[Journal:] The Central European Review of Economics and Management (CEREM) [ISSN:] 2544-0365 [Volume:] 7 [Issue:] 1 [Year:] 2023 [Pages:] 31-61
Publisher: 
WSB University in Wrocław, Wrocław
Abstract: 
Aim: To present a condensed but inclusive discussion of the nature of the complex global system and the impediments to, but also the advantages of, means of prediction and action in a rapidly declining society to offer a compendium of the potential to assess the difficulty of predicting complex social systems. Research methods: A review and synthesis of research material on: the function of dissipative systems, most specifically the global social system; the means to discern, measure and assess three kinds of energy through functional networks; the intractable difficulties with prediction and agency. Conclusions: Regardless the inherent difficulty in prediction and agency in complex systems, there is a benefit to having some methodology. That is, it is better to understand how the system works, and to be able to identify, if just a short while in advance, what might happen and what responses we might have, and to do that we need to have an organized way to look at things. Originality / value of the article: Offers, to a broad variety of large and small organizations, a brief guide to conceptualizing the global system, its functioning parts and sources of energy, and the imperative and difficulty of predicting and strategizing for changes in a declining system. Implications of the research: There is benefit to a thorough understanding of the complex social system, if it allows prediction and response to system changes. Limitations of the research: It is a "crash course", and ideas are explored but not exhaustively described.
Subjects: 
complex systems
disaster management
JEL: 
D91
E71
H12
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-nc-nd Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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