Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/312011 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
IZA Discussion Papers No. 17572
Publisher: 
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn
Abstract: 
What is the future of international migration flows? The growing availability of bilateral international migration data has resulted in an improved understanding of the determinants of migration flows through the estimation of theory-based gravity models. However, the use of these models as a prediction tool has remained a mostly unexplored research area. This paper estimates simple gravity models of bilateral migration flows for the whole world and projects these models into the future. Our results confirm a limited role for economic factors and a large one for demographic ones, in line with the literature. As a novel contribution, we show that estimates based on net flows are substantially lower than those based on gross flows. The reason is that network effects are historically more correlated with gross than with net flows.
Subjects: 
international migration
prediction
gravity model
JEL: 
F22
J11
J61
O15
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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