Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/311592 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
Texto para Discussão No. 3073
Publisher: 
Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA), Brasília
Abstract (Translated): 
The objective of this study is to evaluate the costs and benefits of different demand risk sharing rules for road infrastructure concessions, from the point of view of the economic attractiveness of the projects for the concessionaire and the price reduction for users. The traffic trajectory of a highway is simulated using a stochastic model of Brownian Geometric Movement, using data and parameters from the BR 040 concession auction. From this forecasting, the impacts of different models of demand risk sharing rules on the financial structure of projects are evaluated. We shall demonstrate the superiority of these models over the one without risk sharing in order to increase the financial viability of projects and the potential for reducing tariffs for users.
Subjects: 
stochastic models
risk sharing
infrastructure concessions
JEL: 
C15
H43
R42
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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