Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/311113 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Occasional Paper No. 364
Publisher: 
European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt a. M.
Abstract: 
This paper looks back on the 25-year history of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Since its launch in the first quarter of 1999, it has served as an important input for policymaking and analysis, especially over the past five years, where the euro area has, following a period of low inflation, navigated a global pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and an unprecedented surge in inflation. The survey has evolved over time and provides not only a long time series of economic expectations and forecasts, but also valuable insights on key topical issues and on economic risks and uncertainties. We show that, for each of the three main macroeconomic variables forecast - HICP inflation, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate - the track record of the ECB SPF in forecasting has been broadly comparable to that of the Eurosystem. In addition, its combination of quantitative point forecasts and probability distributions with qualitative explanations has provided useful input for macroeconomic analysis. Beyond analyses of the forecasts for the main macroeconomic variables, there are also two further sections that examine the technical assumptions (oil prices, policy rates, exchange rates and wages) underlying SPF expectations and an analysis and assessment of measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Technical assumptions are shown to account for the lion's share of the variance in the inflation forecast errors, while uncertainty is shown to have increased considerably relative to that which prevailed during the early years of the SPF (1999-2008). Looking ahead, the SPF - with its long track record, its large and broad panel (spanning both financial and non-financial forecasters) and committed panellists - will undoubtedly continue to provide timely and useful insights for the ECB's policymakers, macroeconomic experts, economic researchers and the wider public.
Subjects: 
Survey
forecasts
SPF
expectations
inflation
European Central Bank
economic survey
economic forecasting
microeconomics
JEL: 
D84
E31
E37
E52
E66
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-92-899-6949-9
Document Type: 
Research Report

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