Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/310421 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
Staff Memo No. 1/2024
Publisher: 
Norges Bank, Oslo
Abstract: 
This paper outlines the recently developed method for assessing the trend level in employment rates adopted by Norges Bank. The approach employs a Bayesian VAR to decompose disaggregated employment data into trend and cyclical components, using quarterly labor market data on 30 demographic sub-groups. Applied to the time period 1984-2019, we show that the estimated trend picks up known historical factors contributing to slow-moving employment dynamics. Additionally, the cyclical employment component shows strong correlation with the output gap estimate for Norway.
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-82-8379-307-9
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-nc-nd Logo
Document Type: 
Research Report
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