Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/309982 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
OIES Paper: NG No. 196
Publisher: 
The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Oxford
Abstract: 
On 1 January 2025, the Transit Agreement, which has provided political, commercial, technical and legal grounds for the transit of Russian gas across Ukraine during 2020-24, will expire. Once it happens - and if no extension or alternative transit arrangement are agreed - the transit will stop. The Ukrainian government has repeatedly stated that it will not extend the Agreement because of its unwillingness to have a direct relationship with the Russian government and Gazprom as long as the armed conflict between two countries continues. The EC has asserted that the EU is 'ready to live' without Russian gas that is still transiting Ukraine - 14 bcm in 2023 - and that it will not put pressure on Ukraine to renew the Agreement. The Russian government has stated that it will provide the gas for delivery across Ukraine if a legal framework for transit will be put in place. While at the time of this paper going into print no such framework has been agreed - and neither the EC nor the Ukraine government statements bode well for this to happen - nonetheless, transit stoppage is not yet a foregone conclusion. This paper concludes that at a minimum the following conditions would have to be met for continued post-2024 transit to be possible: political support from EU Member States which would be most affected by potential transit cessation (particularly Slovakia and Austria) for their buyers' efforts to reach an agreement on continued transit enabling them to book capacity in the Ukrainian gas transmission system at the Ukraine-Russia border; clearly communicated lack of objection on the part of the EC for these Member States and their gas buyers to do so; most importantly, Ukraine's willingness to transit Russian gas as confirmed by signature (or renewal) of the technical interconnection agreement between the Ukrainian Transmission System Operator (GTSOU) and Gazprom.
Subjects: 
Austria
Azerbaijan
capacity booking
EC
Gazprom
GTSOU
Hungary
MVM
Naftogaz
OMV
Post-2024 transit
REPowerEU
Russia
security
Slovakia
SOCAR
SPP
transit agreement
transit cessation
TurkStream
Ukraine
ISBN: 
978-1-78467-260-7
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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