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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2024
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Working Paper No. 2024-16
Verlag: 
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, GA
Zusammenfassung: 
This paper uses U.S. credit register data and the 2018-19 Trade War to study the effects of uncertainty on domestic credit supply. Exploiting differences in banks' ex-ante exposure to trade uncertainty, we find that increased uncertainty is associated with a broad lending contraction across their customer firms. This result is consistent with banks responding to uncertainty with wait-and-see behaviors, where more exposed banks curtail risky exposures, reduce loan maturities, and adjust loan supply along both intensive and extensive margins. The lending contraction is larger for more capital-constrained banks and has significant real effects, especially for bank-dependent firms.
Schlagwörter: 
uncertainty
bank loans
trade finance
credit supply
trade war
JEL: 
G21
F34
F42
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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