Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/309123 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper No. 2024-16
Publisher: 
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, GA
Abstract: 
This paper uses U.S. credit register data and the 2018-19 Trade War to study the effects of uncertainty on domestic credit supply. Exploiting differences in banks' ex-ante exposure to trade uncertainty, we find that increased uncertainty is associated with a broad lending contraction across their customer firms. This result is consistent with banks responding to uncertainty with wait-and-see behaviors, where more exposed banks curtail risky exposures, reduce loan maturities, and adjust loan supply along both intensive and extensive margins. The lending contraction is larger for more capital-constrained banks and has significant real effects, especially for bank-dependent firms.
Subjects: 
uncertainty
bank loans
trade finance
credit supply
trade war
JEL: 
G21
F34
F42
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.