Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/309117 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
IDB Working Paper Series No. IDB-WP-1637
Publisher: 
Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Washington, DC
Abstract: 
We estimate the causal effects of a shift in the future expected exchange rate of a local currency against the US dollar on a representative sample of firms in a small open economy. We survey a nationally representative sample of firms and provide the one-year-ahead nominal exchange rate forecast published by the local central bank to a random sub-sample of firm managers. This information treatment is effective in shifting exchange rate expectations and perceptions. These effects are persistent and larger for non-exporting firms. Linking survey responses with administrative census data, we estimate a positive elasticity of current import expenditures to a future expected depreciation. Our estimates highlight the intertemporal margin of trade to anticipated changes in trade costs.
Subjects: 
Expectations
Exchange rate
Firms
Trade
JEL: 
E31
E71
F31
G41
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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