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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2023
Quellenangabe: 
[Journal:] Environmental Modeling & Assessment [ISSN:] 1573-2967 [Volume:] 28 [Issue:] 3 [Publisher:] Springer International Publishing [Place:] Cham [Year:] 2023 [Pages:] 337-365
Verlag: 
Springer International Publishing, Cham
Zusammenfassung: 
We propose a new method for estimating how much decisions under monadic uncertainty matter. The method is generic and suitable for measuring responsibility in finite horizon sequential decision processes. It fulfills "fairness" requirements and three natural conditions for responsibility measures: agency, avoidance and causal relevance. We apply the method to study how much decisions matter in a stylized greenhouse gas emissions process in which a decision maker repeatedly faces two options: start a "green" transition to a decarbonized society or further delay such a transition. We account for the fact that climate decisions are rarely implemented with certainty and that their consequences on the climate and on the global economy are uncertain. We discover that a "moral" approach towards decision making — doing the right thing even though the probability of success becomes increasingly small — is rational over a wide range of uncertainties.
Schlagwörter: 
Climate policy
Responsibility measures
Uncertainty
GHG emissions processes
Verified decision making
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