Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/308464 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Citation: 
[Journal:] Journal of Business Cycle Research [ISSN:] 2509-7970 [Volume:] 19 [Issue:] 1 [Publisher:] Springer International Publishing [Place:] Cham [Year:] 2023 [Pages:] 23-42
Publisher: 
Springer International Publishing, Cham
Abstract: 
National accounts are subject to major revisions. To improve the reliability of first release data, it is important to know whether subsequent revisions show systematic patterns. Or, in other words, whether national accounts are informationally efficient in the sense that all available information is incorporated into the data. This paper used annual data to test three dimensions of informational efficiency: weak efficiency, strong efficiency, and Nordhaus efficiency. The weak efficiency tests found GDP revisions to be noise, whereas revisions of several GDP components showed systematic patterns. Strong efficiency tests found covariations of GDP revisions with some indicators. Business survey results in particular have the potential to reduce the extent of revisions. Finally, Nordhaus efficiency tests found some indication of revision stickiness.
Subjects: 
National account
Data revision
Informational efficiency
JEL: 
C82
E01
E66
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article
Document Version: 
Published Version

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