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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2024
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Kiel Working Paper No. 2278
Verlag: 
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), Kiel
Zusammenfassung: 
We study the political consequences of inflation surprises, focusing on votes for extremist and populist parties in 365 elections in 18 advanced economies since 1948. Inflation surprises are regularly followed by a substantial increase in vote shares of extremist, anti-system, and populist parties. An inflation surprise of 10 percentage points leads to a 15% increase in their vote share, comparable to the increase typically seen after financial crises. We show that the change in voting behavior is particularly pronounced when real wages decline, and less evident when real wages are not affected. Our paper points to considerable political after-effects of unexpected inflation.
Schlagwörter: 
Inflation
Economic Voting
Extremism
Populism
Radicalization
JEL: 
D72
E31
N40
N10
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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