Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/307736 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) No. 722
Publisher: 
Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Hannover
Abstract: 
This paper identifies and estimates the relevant cycles in paleoclimate data of earth temperature, ice volume and CO2. Cyclical cointegration analysis is used to connect these cycles to the earth eccentricity and obliquity and to see that the earth surface temperature and ice volume are closely connected. These findings are used to build a forecasting model including the cyclical component as well as the relevant earth and climate variables which outperforms models ignoring the cyclical behaviour of the data. Especially the turning points can be predicted accurately using the proposed approach. Out of sample forecasts for the turning points of earth temperature, ice volume and CO2 are derived.
Subjects: 
Paleoclimate Cycles
Cyclical Fractional Cointegration
Forecasting Climate Data
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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