Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/307613 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
WiSo-HH Working Paper Series No. 86
Publisher: 
Universität Hamburg, Fakultät für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, WiSo-Forschungslabor, Hamburg
Abstract: 
In recent years, there has been increasing interest in the analysis of narratives in macroeconomic research. Our paper contributes to this research by proposing a way to identify and extract economic narratives from media reports. Therefore, this paper applies state-of-the-art bag-of-words text analysis methods to a large news corpus covering five years of news coverage in combination with results from a survey study on recent inflation narratives (Andre et al., 2023) in the US. This approach enables us to measure the prevalence and spread of inflation narratives over time and to examine the role of these narratives in aggregate macroeconomic expectations. Using Granger causality tests and local projections, we provide empirical evidence on the dynamics between inflation narratives and inflation expectations. Moreover, the paper highlights the vast heterogeneity across shortterm and mid-term inflation expectations as well as socioeconomic groups.
Subjects: 
narratives
expectations
inflation
media
textual data
machine learning
JEL: 
D84
E31
E32
E52
E71
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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