Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/307032 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Citation: 
[Journal:] Politische Vierteljahresschrift [ISSN:] 1862-2860 [Volume:] 64 [Issue:] 3 [Publisher:] Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH [Place:] Wiesbaden [Year:] 2023 [Pages:] 525-547
Publisher: 
Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, Wiesbaden
Abstract: 
This paper addresses the question of whether Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to a turning point ( Zeitenwende ) in public opinion on foreign and defense policy in Germany. To this end, we provide a theoretical analysis of how the concept of turning point can be applied to public opinion. We identify the durability of the change in attitudes as well as its significance as necessary conditions to speak of a turning point. In the remainder of the paper, we focus on the argument that changes in different types of orientations are significant to different degrees. Change in core postures is more significant than change in policy attitudes; change in attitudes thematically distant from the Russian invasion is more significant than change in attitudes directly related to the event. Empirically, we present a panel data analysis of attitude change triggered by the Russian invasion. Analysis of data from several waves of the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) panel survey collected before the invasion (2017–2021) and in two waves after (May and October 2022) shows that there were sizable shifts in policy attitudes directly related to the event. Postures remained essentially unchanged, as did thematically distant attitudes. We conclude that there has been no turning point at the level of public opinion (yet).
Subjects: 
Russo-Ukraine war
Turning point
Stability and change
Core postures
Policy attitudes
Survey data
Russisch-Ukrainischer Krieg
Stabilität und Wandel
Grundhaltungen
Sachfrageorientierungen
Umfragedaten
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
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Document Type: 
Article
Document Version: 
Published Version

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