Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/305580 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 11338
Publisher: 
CESifo GmbH, Munich
Abstract: 
Not according to our data. We use two data sets to test whether professional forecasters follow uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) when making their exchange rate predictions both based on point prediction and direction. We find that professional forecasters generally do not follow UIP across a range of currencies and horizons. Given the prevalence of the UIP condition in our international macro models, these results reiterate the importance of finding the drivers for these deviations.
Subjects: 
focus economics
Bloomberg Survey
exchange rates
JEL: 
F31
F37
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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