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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2024
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 11312
Verlag: 
CESifo GmbH, Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
Announcing a large fiscal stimulus may signal the government’s pessimism about the severity of a recession to the private sector, impairing the stabilizing effects of the policy. Using a theoretical model, we show that these signaling effects occur when the stimulus exceeds expectations and are more noticeable during periods of high economic uncertainty. Analysis of a new dataset of daily stock prices and fiscal news in Japan supports these predictions. We introduce a method to identify fiscal news with different degrees of signaling effects and find that such effects weaken or, in extreme cases, even completely undermine the stabilizing impact of fiscal policy.
Schlagwörter: 
fiscal policy
macroeconomic stabilization
macroeconomic uncertainty
stock prices
Japan
asymmetric information
JEL: 
E62
E32
D83
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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