Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/305406 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
NBB Working Paper No. 457
Publisher: 
National Bank of Belgium, Brussels
Abstract: 
This article measures the degree of potential de-anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area vis-à-vis the inflation objective of the European Central Bank (ECB). A no-arbitrage term structure model that allows for a time-varying long-term mean of inflation expectations, Û୲ ∗, is applied to inflation-linked swap (ILS) rates, while taking into account survey-based inflation forecasts. Estimates of Û୲ ∗ have been close to 2 % since the mid-2000s, indicating that long-term inflation expectations have overall remained well anchored to the ECB's inflation objective. As this objective is however related to the "medium term", expectations components of various forward ILS rates are extracted: they appear to have been broadly anchored, with tentative signs of de-anchoring up to the two-year horizon. Using backcasted ILS rates, estimates of Û୲ ∗ are much above 2 % in the early 1990s, but they converge to levels below 2 % by the end of the decade when the ECB was established.
Subjects: 
Inflation-linked swap rates
surveys
no-arbitrage
shifting endpoint
inflation expectations
JEL: 
E31
E43
E47
E58
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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