Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/305401 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
Working Papers No. 2024-13
Publisher: 
Banco de México, Ciudad de México
Abstract: 
This study uses a Markov regime-switching model with time-varying means to identify subnational, sectoral, and national economic phases. The model replicates the official business cycle dates in Mexico and quantifies the contributions of states, regions, and sectors to the national recession probability. The findings show that the southern region contributes differently to the national recession probability than the other regions, even increasing it during expansionary periods at the national level. Additionally, the manufacturing sector is found to account for up to half of the national recession probability.
Subjects: 
Business cycles
Expansions
Recessions
JEL: 
C22
E32
E27
Document Type: 
Working Paper
Appears in Collections:

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.