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dc.contributor.authorHarding, Torfinnen
dc.contributor.authorvan der Ploeg, Fredericken
dc.date.accessioned2009-11-16-
dc.date.accessioned2010-05-14T08:19:46Z-
dc.date.available2010-05-14T08:19:46Z-
dc.date.issued2009-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/30452-
dc.description.abstractWe estimate fiscal reaction functions for non-hydrocarbon tax and public spending shares of national income and for debt management strategies adopted by Norway and compare these with rules that would prevail under the permanent income hypothesis and bird-in-hand rule. We conclude that the fiscal reaction functions adopted by Norway have to some extent been forward-looking when it comes to the rising pension bill, but backward-looking when it comes to hydrocarbon revenues. Still, our results suggest that the imminent costs of a rapidly graying population are not sufficiently taken into account in the current fiscal rules, since Norway is on a trajectory of turning a current net asset-GDP-ratio close to one into a net debt-GDP-ratio of two in 2060. Something needs to give in the holy trinity: either the rules of the Stabilization fund have to be tightened, or civil servant salaries, benefits and pensions will no longer have to be fully indexed to market wages, or the retirement age has to be increased.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aCenter for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo) |cMunichen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aCESifo Working Paper |x2830en
dc.subject.jelH20en
dc.subject.jelH63en
dc.subject.jelQ33en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordpermanent income hypothesisen
dc.subject.keywordoil windfallen
dc.subject.keywordsovereign wealth funden
dc.subject.keywordgraying populationen
dc.subject.keywordpension billen
dc.subject.keywordunsustainable public financesen
dc.subject.stwMineralölwirtschaften
dc.subject.stwÖffentliche Einnahmenen
dc.subject.stwStaatsfondsen
dc.subject.stwFinanzpolitiken
dc.subject.stwAlternde Bevölkerungen
dc.subject.stwReaktionsfunktionen
dc.subject.stwRentenfinanzierungen
dc.subject.stwDebt Managementen
dc.subject.stwEinkommenshypotheseen
dc.subject.stwNorwegenen
dc.titleIs Norway's bird-in-hand stabilization fund prudent enough? : fiscal reactions to hydrocarbon windfalls and graying populations-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn612885380en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen

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