Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/302691 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
IZA Discussion Papers No. 17174
Publisher: 
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn
Abstract: 
Ex ante returns, the net value that agents perceive before they take an investment decision, are understood as the main drivers of individual decisions. Hence, their distribution in a population is an important tool for counterfactual analysis and policy evaluation. This paper studies the identification of the population distribution of ex ante returns using stated choice experiments, in the context of binary investment decisions. The environment is characterised by uncertainty about future outcomes, with some uncertainty being resolved over time. In this context, each individual holds a probability distribution over different levels of returns. The paper provides novel, nonparametric identification results for the population distribution of returns, accounting for uncertainty. It complements these with a nonparametric/semiparametric estimation methodology, which is new to the stated-preference literature. Finally, it uses these results to study the preference of high ability students in Côte d'Ivoire for public-sector jobs and how the competition for talent affects the expansion of the private sector.
Subjects: 
subjective expectations
ex ante returns
nonseparable panel
distribution regression
job search
public sector
JEL: 
C21
C23
D84
J21
J24
J30
J45
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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