Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/302670 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
IZA Discussion Papers No. 17153
Publisher: 
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn
Abstract: 
In this paper we consider the predictors of the business cycle in Great Britain, where the claimant count and unemployment rate are found to be key indicators associated with turning points. Next, we consider at a micro-economic level, using disaggregated local authority level data, a number of local labour market issues: (i) the determinants of the claimant count and unemployment rate (both highly correlated with the cycle); (ii) local level economic resilience; and (iii) the likelihood of different states of regional vulnerability. Benefit generosity, unit labour costs and state dependence (hysteresis) are key drivers of local labour market performance.
Subjects: 
business cycle dating
local labour markets
resilience
regional vulnerability
JEL: 
E24
E32
J20
R10
R23
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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