Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/300490 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2024
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Staff Reports No. 1100
Verlag: 
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, NY
Zusammenfassung: 
We re-examine the relationship between monetary policy and financial stability in a setting that allows for nonlinear, time-varying relationships between monetary policy, financial stability, and macroeconomic outcomes. Using novel machine-learning techniques, we estimate a flexible "nonlinear VAR" for the stance of monetary policy, real activity, inflation, and financial conditions, and evaluate counterfactual evolutions of downside risk to real activity under alternative monetary policy paths. We find that a tighter path of monetary policy in 2003-05 would have increased the risk of adverse real outcomes three to four years ahead, especially if the tightening had been large or rapid. This suggests that there is limited evidence to support "leaning against the wind" even once one allows for rich nonlinearities, intertemporal dependence, and crisis predictability.
Schlagwörter: 
monetary policy
financial stability
leaning against the wind
JEL: 
E44
E52
E58
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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