Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/290421 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Citation: 
[Journal:] Q Open [ISSN:] 2633-9048 [Volume:] 3 [Issue:] 1 [Article No.:] qoac033 [Publisher:] Oxford University Press (OUP) [Place:] Oxford [Year:] 2022 [Pages:] 1-22
Publisher: 
Oxford University Press (OUP), Oxford
Abstract: 
South Africa has one of the highest crime rates in the world. This paper examines the effect of weather shocks on various types of crime. Using a 12-year panel data set at a monthly resolution on the police ward level, we observe a short-term effect of temperatures on violent crime. Furthermore, we find evidence for the medium-term effect of weather on crime via droughts. Yet, effect sizes are subtle in both cases and we also emphasize often neglected but well-documented limitations to the interpretability of weather data and weather-induced mechanisms. Recognizing these limitations, we conclude with a cautious interpretation of our findings to inform police deployment strategies.
Subjects: 
South Africa
Weather
Crime
Income shocks
JEL: 
C33
O55
Q54
R11
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-nc Logo
Document Type: 
Article
Document Version: 
Published Version

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