Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/287359 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Citation: 
[Journal:] Journal of Business Cycle Research [ISSN:] 2509-7970 [Volume:] 17 [Issue:] 1 [Publisher:] Springer International Publishing [Place:] Cham [Year:] 2021 [Pages:] 71-89
Publisher: 
Springer International Publishing, Cham
Abstract: 
This paper introduces a Business Cycle Indicator to compile a transparent and reliable chronology of past business cycle turning points for Germany. The Indicator is derived applying the statistical method of Principal Component Analysis, based on information from 20 economic time series. In this way, the Business Cycle Indicator grasps the development of the broader economic activity and has several advantages over a business cycle assessment based on quarterly series of Gross Domestic Product.
Subjects: 
Business cycle dating
Recession
Principal component analysis
German economy
JEL: 
C14
C82
E32
E65
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article
Document Version: 
Published Version

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