Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/287093 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Citation: 
[Journal:] Journal of Business Economics [ISSN:] 1861-8928 [Volume:] 91 [Issue:] 9 [Publisher:] Springer [Place:] Berlin, Heidelberg [Year:] 2021 [Pages:] 1469-1497
Publisher: 
Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Abstract: 
Agent-based simulation has become an established method for innovation and technology diffusion research. It extends traditional approaches by modeling diffusion processes from a micro-level perspective, which enables the consideration of various heterogeneous stakeholders and their diverse interactions. While such a simulation is well suited to capture the complex behavior of markets, its application is challenging when it comes to modeling future markets. Therefore, we propose a multi-method approach that combines scenario analysis that generates multiple "pictures of the future" with an agent-based market simulation that offers insight into the potential outcomes of today's strategic (technological) decisions in each of these futures. Thus, simulation results can provide valuable decision support for corporate planners and industrial engineers when they are engaged in technology planning. This paper describes the novel approach and illustrates it through a sample application that is based on an industry-related research project on the development and market introduction of smart products.
Subjects: 
Agent-based modeling
Scenario analysis
Technology planning
Smart products
JEL: 
O33
C53
C63
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article
Document Version: 
Published Version

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