Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/286887 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2021
Quellenangabe: 
[Journal:] Journal of Business Cycle Research [ISSN:] 2509-7970 [Volume:] 17 [Issue:] 2 [Publisher:] Springer International Publishing [Place:] Cham [Year:] 2021 [Pages:] 215-232
Verlag: 
Springer International Publishing, Cham
Zusammenfassung: 
This analysis investigates the predictive power of the headline indices of the four most important German survey providers. We conduct an out-of-sample, real-time forecast experiment for growth of total and private sector gross domestic product and growth of gross value added in both the manufacturing and the service sector. All providers publish valuable leading indicators for both GDP measures, with some advantages for the ifo indicators and the Economic Sentiment Indicator, respectively. For the manufacturing sector, indicators provided by the ifo Institute are clearly superior. For the service sector, all indicators prove to have a similar nowcasting performance, whereas the Economic Sentiment Services of the Centre for European Research is preferable for one quarter-ahead predictions.
Schlagwörter: 
Forecasting
ifo business climate
PMI
ESI
ZEW economic sentiment
JEL: 
E17
E27
E37
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
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Dokumentart: 
Article
Dokumentversion: 
Published Version

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