Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/286887 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Citation: 
[Journal:] Journal of Business Cycle Research [ISSN:] 2509-7970 [Volume:] 17 [Issue:] 2 [Publisher:] Springer International Publishing [Place:] Cham [Year:] 2021 [Pages:] 215-232
Publisher: 
Springer International Publishing, Cham
Abstract: 
This analysis investigates the predictive power of the headline indices of the four most important German survey providers. We conduct an out-of-sample, real-time forecast experiment for growth of total and private sector gross domestic product and growth of gross value added in both the manufacturing and the service sector. All providers publish valuable leading indicators for both GDP measures, with some advantages for the ifo indicators and the Economic Sentiment Indicator, respectively. For the manufacturing sector, indicators provided by the ifo Institute are clearly superior. For the service sector, all indicators prove to have a similar nowcasting performance, whereas the Economic Sentiment Services of the Centre for European Research is preferable for one quarter-ahead predictions.
Subjects: 
Forecasting
ifo business climate
PMI
ESI
ZEW economic sentiment
JEL: 
E17
E27
E37
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article
Document Version: 
Published Version

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.