Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/286372 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Citation: 
[Journal:] Agricultural Economics [ISSN:] 1574-0862 [Volume:] 55 [Issue:] 2 [Publisher:] Wiley [Place:] Hoboken, NJ [Year:] 2024 [Pages:] 384-411
Publisher: 
Wiley, Hoboken, NJ
Abstract: 
We assess exchange rate pass‐through when the Ruble exchange rate was managed in comparison with when it became free‐floating. Estimates of the error correction model for milling wheat prices suggest exchange rate pass‐through to be strongest in Russia's North Caucasus, the region closest to the Black Sea ports, and weakest in the remote regions of Volga and West Siberia since the Ruble exchange rate became free‐floating in 2014. In contrast, we find Russian regional wheat prices and the Ruble/USD exchange rate not cointegrated when the exchange rate was managed. Further, feed wheat (Class 5) is only weakly integrated compared to wheat Classes 3 and 4 for human consumption. With Russia's invasion of Ukraine, exchange rate pass‐through to Russian wheat prices has decreased sharply. Thus, the Ukraine war drives the disintegration of Russia's wheat sector from international markets and adds to the risks of supply chain disruption and geopolitical risks, which may increase export supply volatility. To strengthen trade resilience, countries that are dependent on wheat imports should diversify their import sources.
Subjects: 
exchange rate pass-through
food security
Russia
the war in Ukraine
wheat prices
JEL: 
Q02
Q13
Q17
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article
Document Version: 
Published Version

Files in This Item:
File
Size
26.18 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.