Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/282452 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 10764
Version Description: 
This version: November 21, 2023
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
In this paper, we use high-frequency transaction data to develop a weekly tracker for private consumption expenditures. Furthermore, we apply the transaction data in a nowcasting experiment and compare their performance with other, readily available indicators that are regularly linked to private consumption in Germany. The weekly tracker produces precise estimates and can thus be used in real-time, especially in very turbulent times such as a pandemic or the high-inflation-phase in its aftermath. In terms of nowcast accuracy, the tracker outperforms all remaining indicators, making it a powerful tool for applied forecasting work. We plan to regularly publish the weekly consumption tracker in the future, thereby complementing the database for Germany.
Subjects: 
private consumption expenditures
real-time tracker
high-frequency transaction data
mixed-frequency vectorautoregression
Bayesian estimation
JEL: 
C32
C53
E01
E21
E27
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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