Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/282347 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 10659
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
This paper proposes a structural econometric approach to estimating the basic reproduction number (R0) of Covid-19. This approach identifies R0 in a panel regression model by filtering out the effects of mitigating factors on disease diffusion and is easy to implement. We apply the method to data from 48 contiguous U.S. states and a diverse set of countries. Our results reveal a notable concentration of R0 estimates with an average value of 4.5. Through a counterfactual analysis, we highlight a significant underestimation of the R0 when mitigating factors are not appropriately accounted for.
Subjects: 
basic reproduction number
Covid-19
panel threshold regression model
JEL: 
C13
C33
I12
I18
J18
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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