Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/282300 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
Quaderni - Working Paper DSE No. 1178
Publisher: 
Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche (DSE), Bologna
Abstract: 
Measuring economic uncertainty is challenging, but it is important for policymakers to address it, especially in countries for which there are virtually no uncertainty indices. This article proposes an index of economic uncertainty for Poland, EURQPL, based on Internet searches for specific terms to capture the level of uncertainty perceived by Internet-using economic agents. Compared to Bontempi et al. (2021) who analysed the US and Italy, the change of country, the use of either Polish or English in the definition of queries and the creation of regional indices offer interesting insights. The national index peaks at times commonly considered uncertain, such as the financial crisis and the coronavirus pandemic. Compared to the EURQ for the US and Italy, our index has a significant peak due to the teachers' strike, a shock not reported in the literature. Particularly relevant are the terms related to social security and fiscal policy; uncertainty shocks have persistent effects on unemployment. Besides confirming how successfully Internet searches can be exploited in economic research, we highlight how regional indices can be used to study the impact of uncertainty on local economies.
Subjects: 
Economic Uncertainty
Uncertainty in Poland
Regional Uncertainty
Native Language and English
Internet Searches
Google Trends
JEL: 
C23
C41
D22
G32
L10
O30
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-nc Logo
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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