Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/281073 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
Kiel Institute Economic Outlook No. 105
Publisher: 
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), Kiel
Abstract: 
The global economy has expanded at a very moderate pace so far in 2023, but stayed clear of the recession predicted by many for the advanced economies as a result of the massive tightening of monetary policy. In the United States in particular, the economy is proving surprisingly robust. By contrast, economic momentum in China has recently fallen short of expectations and is likely to remain subdued amid structural problems. Overall, we expect global production - measured on a purchasing power parity basis - to increase by 3.0 percent this year, with growth next year likely to be somewhat lower at 2.8 percent. Compared with our June forecast, we have revised growth upward by 0.2 percentage points for 2023 and downward by 0.2 percentage points for 2024. For 2025, we expect the global economy to pick up to a growth rate of 3.2 percent. Unemployment in the advanced economies will increase slightly going forward, although it will remain low by historical standards. Inflation has recently fallen significantly, mainly as a result of lower commodity prices. While underlying inflation has remained high for the most part, we expect an easing of the situation to become increasingly apparent in the coming months. Nonetheless, inflation rates are not expected to fall sustainably to levels close to the targets before 2025.
Document Type: 
Article

Files in This Item:
File
Size
992.52 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.