Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/28076 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2008
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Diskussionsbeiträge No. 2008/10
Verlag: 
Freie Universität Berlin, Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft, Berlin
Zusammenfassung: 
We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money improves forecasting accuracy. The results are very robust with regard to alternative treatments of priors and sample periods. That said, there is also reason not to overemphasize the role of money. The predictive power of money growth for inflation is substantially lower in more recent sample periods compared to the 1970s and 1980s. This cautions against using money-based inflation models anchored in very long samples for policy advice.
Schlagwörter: 
Bayesian VAR
out-of-sample forecasting
Granger causality
monetary aggregates
inflation
monetary policy
European Central Bank.
JEL: 
E47
E52
E58
ISBN: 
3938369817
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe
401.63 kB





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.