Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/28076
Authors: 
Berger, Helge
Österholm, Pär
Year of Publication: 
2008
Series/Report no.: 
Diskussionsbeiträge des Fachbereichs Wirtschaftswissenschaft der Freien Universität Berlin 2008/10
Abstract: 
We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money improves forecasting accuracy. The results are very robust with regard to alternative treatments of priors and sample periods. That said, there is also reason not to overemphasize the role of money. The predictive power of money growth for inflation is substantially lower in more recent sample periods compared to the 1970s and 1980s. This cautions against using money-based inflation models anchored in very long samples for policy advice.
Subjects: 
Bayesian VAR
out-of-sample forecasting
Granger causality
monetary aggregates
inflation
monetary policy
European Central Bank.
JEL: 
E47
E52
E58
ISBN: 
3938369817
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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