Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/280631 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
AEI Economics Working Paper No. 2021-01
Publisher: 
American Enterprise Institute (AEI), Washington, DC
Abstract: 
Although COVID-19 vaccines are finally available, the rate at which they are administered is slow, and in the meantime the pandemic continues to claim about as many lives every day as the 9/11 tragedy. I estimate that with the promised rate of vaccinations, if no additional nonpharmaceutical interventions are implemented, 406 thousand additional lives will be lost and the future cost of the pandemic will reach $2.4 trillion, or 11% of GDP. Using a cost-benefit analysis, I assess whether it is optimal for the United States to follow the lead of many European countries and introduce a nation-wide lockdown. I find that a lockdown would be indeed optimal and, depending on the assumptions, it should last between two and four weeks and will generate a net benefit of up to $1.2 trillion.
Subjects: 
COVID-19
Pandemic Curve
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions
Public Health Policy
Lockdown
JEL: 
A
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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