Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/28037
Authors: 
Berger, Helge
Ehrmann, Michael
Fratzscher, Marcel
Year of Publication: 
2006
Series/Report no.: 
Diskussionsbeiträge des Fachbereichs Wirtschaftswissenschaft der Freien Universität Berlin 2006/11
Abstract: 
Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multi-country, multi-cultural, and multi-lingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the ECB? Using a database of surveys of professional ECB policy forecasters in 24 countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and clustering around informational hubs, as well as to country-specific economic conditions and traditions of independent central banking in the past. In large part this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some systematic differences between analysts have been transitional and are indicative of learning, others are more persistent.
Subjects: 
monetary policy
ECB
forecast
geography
history
heterogeneity
Taylor rule
learning
transmission
survey data
communication
JEL: 
E52
E58
G14
ISBN: 
3938369361
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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