Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/279286 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 10536
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
The paper is structured around three main contributions. First, it takes advantage of a unique survey on Afghan asylum seekers in Germany to provide novel descriptive insights into asylum seekers' beliefs about their outcomes and the associated intention to overstay. Second, it estimates asylum seekers' perceived ex ante returns on overstaying, and option values of regularisation, deportation, and experimentation. Third, it assesses and rejects the cost-effectiveness argument for assisted voluntary return policies. Instead, it estimates a sizeable willingness-to-pay of asylum seekers for investments that would guarantee their regularisation.
Subjects: 
subjective expectations
intention to overstay
asylum seekers
Germany
Afghanistan
JEL: 
C20
D84
F22
J15
J18
J61
O15
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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