Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/278963 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
IZA Discussion Papers No. 16265
Publisher: 
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn
Abstract: 
Some of the U.S. states saw sharper declines in truck transportation payrolls at the onset of the COVID-19 shutdown, and others displayed differing trajectories in the rebound of truck transportation payrolls during the economic recovery. Analyzing why provides theoretical and practical insights regarding labor dynamics in the trucking sector. In this vein we extend factor market rivalry theory regarding labor dynamics in the trucking sector: we suggest that trucking firms have compound relations with demand generating sectors in that they may compete for the same workers. Sectors differ in how output changes affect both their demand for trucking freight and the extent of their labor poaching; this creates differing net effects on trucking employment. We create a state-level archival data set of truck transportation establishment payrolls from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which we combine with other archival sources. We test our hypotheses via discontinuous growth curve models estimated using the mixed effects modeling framework. Effects vary by time period and industry, but manufacturing and natural resource extraction stand out in perhaps surprising ways, and changes in demand for local freight movements are especially important. Our results align with our theory and have important implications for managers and policy makers.
Subjects: 
truck transportation
motor carrier
COVID-19
pandemic shutdown
pandemic recovery
trucking employment
JEL: 
J21
L92
R41
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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