Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/278536 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
ECONtribute Discussion Paper No. 241
Publisher: 
University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Reinhard Selten Institute (RSI), Bonn and Cologne
Abstract: 
How do health crises affect election results? We combine a panel of election results from 1893-1933 with spatial heterogeneity in excess mortality due to the 1918 Influenza to assess the pandemic's effect on voting behavior across German constituencies. Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards left-wing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents for inadequate policy responses, or polarization of the electorate towards more extremist parties are not supported by our findings.
Subjects: 
Pandemics
Elections
Health
Voting behavior
Issue salience
Issue ownership
Weimar Republic
JEL: 
D72
I18
N34
H51
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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