Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/275185 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Citation: 
[Journal:] Journal of Risk and Financial Management [ISSN:] 1911-8074 [Volume:] 16 [Issue:] 2 [Article No.:] 117 [Year:] 2023 [Pages:] 1-31
Publisher: 
MDPI, Basel
Abstract: 
This paper studies price discovery in Nikkei 225 markets through the nonlinear smooth transition price adjustments between spot and future prices and across all three futures markets. We test for smooth transition nonlinearity and employ an exponential smooth transition error correction model (ESTECM) with exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH), allowing for the effects of transaction costs, heterogeneity, and asymmetry in Nikkei price adjustments. We show that the ESTECM-EGARCH is the appropriate model as it offers new insights into Nikkei price dynamics and information transmission across international markets. For spot-futures price dynamics, we find that futures led spot prices before the crisis, but spot prices led afterwards. This can be explained by the lower level of heterogeneity in the underlying spot transaction costs after the crisis. For cross-border futures prices, the foreign exchanges (Chicago and Singapore) lead in price discovery, which can be attributed to their roles as global information centres and their flexible trading conditions, such as a more heterogeneous structure of transaction costs. The foreign leadership is robust to the use of linear or nonlinear models, the time differences between Chicago and the other markets, and the long-run liquidity conditions of the Nikkei futures markets, and strongly supports the international centre hypothesis.
Subjects: 
information transmission
Nikkei 225 futures
price adjustment
price discovery
smooth transition
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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