Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/272681 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
IZA Discussion Papers No. 16054
Publisher: 
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn
Abstract: 
In the early 2000s, the Colombian government aired messages during games of the national football team, urging FARC rebels to demobilize. We first study the strategy's effectiveness, leveraging game dates, kick-off times, and spatial-temporal variation in rain-induced signal strength in a municipality-day-level panel spanning 2003-2016. Over 1,000 rebels demobilized because of family-themed (but not national-unity-themed) messages, received during unexpected losses (i.e., negative emotional cues). We then model a rebel's demobilization decision, combining identity salience with their emotional state. Finally, we corroborate the model's predictions examining family- versus non-family-specific holidays and local climatic anomalies.
Subjects: 
civil war
conflict resolution
demobilization
hearts-and-minds
information campaigns
JEL: 
D74
D91
H56
L82
N46
O54
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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